NHL Teams’ Early-Season Numbers & What Trends May Be Developing

We may be only a week and a half into the 2026-27 NHL season, but there are some interesting trends in teams’ metrics worth keeping an eye on. Take these numbers with a grain of salt, given how early it is. But they could point to where teams may fall in the standings as the season progresses.

Flyers & Sharks Have Early Concerns

The Philadelphia Flyers have been one of the season’s biggest early storylines, so let’s start there. They’re 0-3-2, and it hasn’t been pretty. The Pittsburgh Penguins throttled the Flyers on opening night, defeating them 7-0 in a nationally televised game. They’ve had a couple of close losses to the New Jersey Devils and Carolina Hurricanes, but the scoreboard doesn’t reflect how those games went.

The Flyers have the second-worst expected goals share (xG%) in the NHL at 32.84 percent. Their shot-attempt share isn’t much better, sitting at 37.5 percent. They’ve struggled to maintain puck possession and are giving up an average of 36.8 shots on goal per game.

If there’s some good news for the Flyers, a 32.84 xG% is unsustainably low. Even the worst NHL teams finish the season somewhere in the 40- 45 percent range. That number was below 30 percent before last night’s game against the Ottawa Senators, so it’s already improved a bit.

Still, there’s big-time concern about how the Flyers have started the season. Aside from their 2-1 loss to the Senators last night, their opponents have thoroughly outplayed them to start this season. They have an actual goals share of 26.67 percent, so they’re more or less playing to expectations. They’ve been that bad.

Another team with some concerning numbers is the San Jose Sharks. They were a trendy preseason playoff pick, but their five-on-five numbers haven’t been much better than the Flyers’. Sure, they’ve won three of their first four games, but the losses will pile up if their process doesn’t improve.

The Sharks have a 30.39 xG% and a 41.16 shot-attempt share through four games. Their defense has been leaky, and they’re not generating enough offense at five-on-five. Like the Flyers, those numbers are unsustainably low and should improve as the season progresses. But the Sharks have also been one of the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL over the last couple of seasons. They may not live up to expectations if this continues.

The Flames’ Odd Quirk

One of the most interesting quirks early this season has been the Calgary Flames’ five-on-five numbers. You wouldn’t know it by their results, but they have a 53.86 xG% at five-on-five. They’ve played a bit better than their actual results, but they’ve been outscored 20-4(!) at five-on-five. That’s good for an actual goal share of just 16.67 percent.

The Flames may have the worst forward group in the NHL, but their actual goal share should improve at some point, even if it never matches their expected numbers. There are two reasons for that. The Flames’ .798 five-on-five save percentage will improve. Dustin Wolf is too good a goaltender not to get it together.

Two) The Flames won’t shoot 4.08 percent at five-on-five forever. Even though their forward group lacks scoring punch, that number will improve. Even the worst-finishing teams shoot around seven to eight percent at five-on-five for the season.

Still, I can’t remember such a discrepancy between a team’s expected and actual numbers this early in the season. The Flames may be a contender for the first overall pick in the 2027 draft, but they’re certainly not this bad.

Wait & See With Rangers, Wild, & Jets

Two teams that have started well and caught my attention are the Winnipeg Jets and New York Rangers. The Jets are 3-0-1, while the Rangers are 4-1-0. Are they in a position to continue their good starts, or will they fall off?

Even through the Connor Hellebuyck drama, the Jets have battled through it. Stuart Skinner has been great, and Kyle Connor has been red hot as a goal-scorer. The Jets’ five-on-five numbers do raise some red flags, though. They have a 43.39 xG% and a 44.15 shot-attempt share.

As for the Rangers, it’s a similar story. Igor Shesterkin has been fantastic in net. The team has a .947 five-on-five save percentage, but their overall five-on-five numbers haven’t been great. They have a 44.6 xG% and a 46.04 shot-attempt share.

Both teams will likely fall off if their numbers stay where they are now, but we’re in wait-and-see mode with each. They aren’t struggling to the Flyers’ and Sharks’ length, and both teams’ five-on-five numbers could improve as the sample sizes grow.

The Minnesota Wild are another team to monitor early on. They’re 2-1-1 after losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning last night, but their five-on-five numbers are not pretty. They have a 45.71 xG% through four games, but again, it’s just a four-game sample.

We’ll see if their numbers improve as the sample size increases, but I have my concerns about the Wild. They don’t have the winger depth that they had last season, and they lack a No. 1 center. That could cause some problems in a competitive Central Division.

Top Teams May Already Be Forming

It may be early, but you can already see who the top teams might be this season. The Carolina Hurricanes have an impressive 64.69 xG%. That number will regress a bit, but they’ve been one of the top five-on-five teams for years. I don’t expect that to change.

The top five teams in expected goals right now are the Hurricanes, Buffalo Sabres, Florida Panthers, Utah Mammoth, and Lightning. They’re all at 59 percent or higher, so some regression is coming, but I think most of us expect them to be playoff teams.

You can say you’re in wait-and-see mode with all these teams since most have played only four to five games. We’ll have a better idea of where everyone is trending 15 to 20 games into the season, but it’s always fun to look at samples this early. You get some quirks that you don’t see as the season progresses. It’ll be interesting to see which trends are legit and which ones were just due to the small sample size.

Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick