Michael Brandsegg-Nygård is an Early Calder Trophy Front Runner

With numerous massive distractions circling the Detroit Red Wings early on in their season, it can be hard to see the silver linings. Today we’re going to take a deeper look at one of the team’s biggest bright spots so far in the fantastic rookie season being authored in Detroit by winger Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (MBN).

When he was selected 15th overall back in the 2024 Draft, the excitement was pretty low. The consensus was that the draft class had 15 great prospects and it was clear Detroit would be left with the one that no other lottery team wanted. Elite puck-moving defenders like Zayne Parekh and Zeev Buium were already off the board, and so was Konsta Helenius, a two way center who matched Detroit’s drafting philosophy perfectly. 

Brandsegg-Nygård wasn’t a surprising pick for Detroit at all, with the high motor and character that the team has highly coveted in the early rounds of the NHL draft over the past decade or so. He was seen as a sniper with a strong physical game, but expectations weren’t especially high for him over the year or two following his draft. 

Setting the Scene

However, MBN decided to make the trip to North America for the beginning of the 2025-26 season, and immediately impressed with his two-way details and excellent physical engagement. He made the Red Wings’ opening night roster and played well through 14 games, though he was absolutely snake-bitten with some of the worst luck in recent history and was then sent to the Grand Rapids Griffins in the AHL. 

He excelled in the American league, as one of just 10 U21 players to put up at least 40 points. MBN scored 20 goals in the AHL, a sign that his goalscoring prowess would translate to the North American game in time. After leading the team in playoff scoring (8 points in 8 games), MBN joined Team Norway at the Men’s World Championship where he scored six points in their five remaining games, including a primary assist in over 20 minutes of ice time during the Bronze Medal game where Norway beat out Canada for their first ever IIHF medal.

Maintaining Momentum

With the Red Wings in turmoil having lost Patrick Kane, Dylan Larkin, and Simon Edvinsson due to various levels of incompetence within the organization, MBN has done a phenomenal job of keeping his momentum going after last season. So far through 13 games, he has scored eight points, a very respectable 52-point pace over an 84 game season. 

That’s more points than highly touted offensive prospects such as Porter Martone, Anton Frondell, and Victor Eklund have scored yet and places MBN for 5th in rookie scoring as well as 5th in NHL scoring among players drafted in 2024. 

His status as a physical sniper is very much still intact, with his 28 shots ranking second among all rookies and his 57 hits ranking sixth in the entire NHL. His play style reminds me a bit of a young Alex Ovechkin, hitting anything that moves and taking tons of shots, though he is much more engaged off the puck. Obviously he can’t compare to the greatest goal scorer in the history of the league, but I think he projects as a highly physical winger who can challenge 30 goals on an annual basis very soon. Brandsegg-Nygård is averaging about 15 and a half minutes of ice time, and his shot and hit totals will only continue to climb as he earns a bigger role on the team.

Even the Fancy Stats Like MBN

(all stats consider players with a minimum of 100 all strength minutes, stats via. NaturalStatTrick)

MBN has been driving two way results incredibly well to start the season, and not just relative to expectations as a rookie. He has been a legitimately great defensive forward so far, with a Corsi rate of 64.4% which ranks second among NHL rookies and, remarkably, 27th overall in the league.

Here are some of the other advanced stats and his overall ranks among rookies and the rest of the league to illustrate how much of a difference maker he has been so far:

The Red Wings have been heavily outshooting their opponents with Brandsegg-Nygård on the ice through 13 games and are producing more than two thirds of the expected goals and high danger chances during his shifts. Those are absolutely elite numbers and if he can sustain anything resembling them for the remainder of the season, MBN is set to become an absolutely dominant two-way forward.

Often, numbers this good can be fudged just a bit by favourable deployment. Players like Trevor Connelly, Cole Caufield, and Mikko Rantanen begin over 80% of their shifts in the offensive zone, giving them a greater chance of creating offense overall. However, that’s not the case for MBN who begins just 62% of his shifts in the offensive zone, the 179th highest amount in the league.

What about luck? MBN had an atrociously unlucky stint in the NHL last season so is he just getting a steep correction this time around? Nope.

While the Red Wings are creating a ton of chances with him on the ice, they are only scoring on 10.4% of their shots during Brandsegg-Nygård’s shifts, which ranks 314th out of the 554 players to play at least 100 minutes this season.

However, he has benefited from strangely elite goaltending during his shifts at 95.3%, the ninth highest mark in the league, though that is significantly impacted by the shot and high danger chance suppression that he provides. His overall PDO (the sum of on ice shooting percentage and save percentage, a rough indicator of luck) is 52nd in the league, heavily supported by save percentage numbers.

What Needs to Happen For MBN to Make a Calder Push?

With the best defensive numbers, a high end physical game, and solid scoring so far, Brandsegg-Nygård has definitely put himself on the radar as a Calder Trophy contender. Unfortunately for him, the Calder Trophy, much like most NHL awards, is typically given to the player with the best storylines surrounding them. Gavin McKenna “replacing” Mitch Marner in Toronto, Trevor Connelly replacing Pavel Dorofyev in Vegas, and James Hagens becoming a top-six center on an excellent Boston Bruins team are all big stories.

MBN becoming a dominant two-way player is a great storyline, but the Larkin and Edvinsson debacles have so far overshadowed him completely. If he can earn more power play minutes and stick around the top-5 or so in rookie scoring with excellent defensive metrics, then I think there’s a chance he gets on Calder ballots. If he ends up with roughly 50 points and is still the best two-way player in the rookie class, I think this season will be nothing but an unqualified success for Brandsegg-Nygård.