NHL Panic Meter: Which Teams’ Slow Starts Are the Most Concerning?

It may be early in the NHL season, but a few teams expected to be in the playoff picture have gotten off to slow starts. Which ones are most concerning? And who should be fine in the long run? Let’s take a look.

Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers were in the playoffs just a few months ago. They even advanced a round after defeating their archrivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins, in the first round. It’s early in the season, but their start raises major red flags.

It’s not like the Flyers are playing well and getting unlucky. They’re getting thoroughly outplayed most nights, and some of their losses could have been much worse if Joseph Woll and Dan Vladar hadn’t stood on their heads.

At least in the analytics era (2007-present), the Flyers are off to a historically terrible start. They have an expected goals share (xG%) of 34.3 percent, ranked dead last in the NHL. They’re bleeding quality chances, allowing 3.3 expected goals per 60 minutes. Nor are they generating offense, averaging just 1.7 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.

It is still very much small-sample-size season, but the Flyers’ numbers could not be much worse. The good news is they should improve. They’re unsustainably bad, but I’m not sure their ceiling is all that high.

Flyers fans must be wondering how they could be this bad. There’s no question they overachieved last season. A bad Metropolitan Division helped, but they also weren’t as good as their record indicated.

Still, it’s shocking to see how poor their play has been. Rick Tocchet’s job isn’t in jeopardy, at least not now. But their season is trending toward being over before the calendar even flips to November. At 0-5-3, they may already be digging a hole too deep to climb out of.

Concern Meter: 9/10

Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres were the feel-good story of the 2025-26 season, but they’re off to a slow-ish start, going 3-3-1 in their first seven games. Their process suggests they will pick it up, however. Their five-on-five numbers look good early on.

The Sabres have a 56.6 xG% through seven games, ranked seventh in the NHL. They’re averaging 2.7 expected goals per 60 minutes while allowing just 2.00 per 60 minutes. Their issue early on has been goaltending.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has an .850 save percentage in five starts, and he’s allowed four goals above expected. The league average save percentage is .885 through the first couple of weeks of the season, so he’s clearly been below average.

What’s the solution in net? The Sabres have been one of the teams rumored to have interest in Connor Hellebuyck (From ‘Connor Hellebuyck trade rumors, Tage Thompson at center and more from Buffalo Sabres training camp’ – The Athletic, 9/16/2026).

Hellebuyck would obviously be an upgrade, but Luukkonen is better than an .851 goalie. He finished last season with a .910 save percentage, so I expect him to bounce back from his slow start. Otherwise, I’m not too concerned about the Sabres moving forward.

Concern Meter: 3.5/10

Los Angeles Kings

One of two winless NHL teams, the Kings have gotten off to a 0-3-2 start. They barely qualified for the playoffs last season, but some still considered them a playoff contender, given the state of the Pacific Division.

GM Ken Holland made some changes this summer, signing Mats Zuccarello in free agency and hiring Peter Laviolette as head coach. Still, those moves were unlikely to be enough to prop up one of the league’s oldest rosters.

For starters, Zuccarello is 38. He’s still a good player, but he doesn’t make the Kings any younger. They have some high-end talent in Adrian Kempe and Artemi Panarin, but they’re on the wrong side of 30, too.

It may be early, but the Kings might already be showing their age. They’ve been one of the slowest-paced teams and look intent on playing low-event hockey. They have a 49.4 xG% and middling five-on-five numbers that suggest that’s how they want to play.

The one saving grace for the Kings is that they’re in the Pacific Division. They’ll need to string a couple of wins together soon to avoid falling into a Flyers situation. But it sure does feel like they’re heading in the wrong direction. Another rebuild with a different GM may be on the horizon.

Concern Meter: 8/10

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs comfortably missed the playoffs last season, but they had a busy summer, and many expect them to bounce back and be competitive this season. They’re off to a 3-3-1 start, but I see reason to be concerned if you’re a Maple Leafs fan.

It may be only seven games, but the Maple Leafs’ five-on-five numbers have not been good. They have a 42.3 xG%, ranked 28th in the NHL. Their defense has been of particular concern, as they’re allowing 3.00 expected goals per 60 minutes. That will need to tighten up in the coming weeks.

There may be reason to believe their defense will improve, too. They’re integrating some new pieces, specifically Darren Raddysh, and they’re already missing Chris Tanev due to injury.

Still, I’m not entirely sold on this Maple Leafs roster. Aside from their blue-line concerns, their bottom six has too many defense-first forwards. Sergei Bobrovsky has been good early on, but he’s been under fire, which is why their defense needs to tighten up. It’s certainly not a five-alarm fire in Toronto, but their process suggests there’s reason to be moderately concerned about where this team is heading.

Concern Meter: 6.5/10

Dallas Stars

The Stars picked up a good shootout win over the Colorado Avalanche on Oct. 14, but they’ve struggled early this season. Their five-on-five numbers have not been great and are concerning, especially since they struggled at five-on-five last season.

Through six games, the Stars have a 47.7 xG%, ranked 22nd in the NHL. Head coach Glen Gulutzan has made some system tweaks. Perhaps it’s just taking time for the Stars to adjust, but it hasn’t resulted in the changes he’d like so far.

The Stars are struggling to score at five-on-five, averaging just 1.98 goals per 60 minutes. They’ve been stingy defensively, but the offense will eventually need to catch up. They have plenty of firepower, so you have to think the goals will come eventually. Still, their five-on-five play is a moderate concern, since it doesn’t look all that different from last season.

Concern meter: 6/10

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens are in a similar position as the Sabres. They’re off to a 3-3-1 start, but goaltending has been an issue early on. They look like an improved team at five-on-five, totaling a 53.1 xG% through their first seven games. It’s just a matter of getting saves.

Jakub Dobes has struggled out of the gate, totaling an .841 save percentage. He was one of the NHL’s better goaltenders last season, finishing with a .901 save percentage. He was a significant reason the Canadiens advanced to the Eastern Conference Final.

Dobes’ play will likely improve as the season progresses, similar to Luukkonen. But in the meantime, the Canadiens could turn to top prospect Jacob Fowler, who’s played well in the spot starts he’s made. Either way, Canadiens fans shouldn’t worry too much. If their five-on-five numbers stay where they are, they’ll be in the playoff mix, as long as their goaltending gets it together.

Concern Meter: 3.5/10

New Jersey Devils

The Devils are 3-3-0, but they have needed overtime to secure two of their three wins. They have the best xG% in the NHL early on at 59.5 percent, but two potential concerns have emerged, and Devils fans know them all too well.

One) The Devils are struggling to convert on their chances. They’ve been the third-worst-finishing team in the NHL, though their 5-4 overtime win over the Detroit Red Wings could be a sign the dam is about to burst.

Two) Goaltending has been a problem early on. Jake Allen and Nico Daws have performed below expectations. This team will only need league-average goaltending if their finishing comes around, but Allen and Daws have been below average so far.

The Devils will likely be one of the NHL’s best five-on-five teams this season. But if they can’t score or get goaltending, it’ll sink their season. I’m cautiously optimistic that will come around, especially their finishing if they continue to generate the grade-A chances they are. They should be fine in the long run, but time will tell.

Concern Meter: 4/10

We’ll see which teams’ early concerns are legitimate. For some, it feels all too familiar from 2025-26. For others, they may just be finding their footing early on after making some changes over the summer.

Advanced stats from Hockey Stats