Stars’ Robertson Due for a Significant Pay Raise This Offseason

Jason Robertson is one of the most intriguing players of this NHL offseason. Slated to become a restricted free agent on July 1, he’s due for a significant pay raise from his $7.875 million cap hit. Odds are that it will come with the Dallas Stars, but what could his next contract look like? Let’s take a stab at projecting it.

Robertson Among the Elite NHLers

Robertson may not be a center, but you could argue that he’s almost as valuable as a center, if not more valuable. He’s coming off one of the best seasons of his career, having totaled 45 goals and 96 points in 82 games. Over the last three seasons, he’s averaged 36 goals and 85 points per season, and he hasn’t missed a single game.

The counting totals have been impressive, but Robertson has also been a dominant five-on-five player. He’s totaled an expected goals share (xG%) of 54.98 percent over the last three seasons, and the Stars have outscored their opponents 192-135 with him on the ice.

Robertson has also been the Stars’ second most efficient five-on-five scorer behind Tyler Seguin, averaging 2.4 points per 60 minutes. That makes him one of the most efficient five-on-five scorers in the NHL. He’s averaged more points per 60 minutes than William Nylander, Jake Guentzel, and Matthew Tkachuk over that stretch, all of whom are some of the best wingers in the NHL.

What makes Robertson so impactful is his play-driving ability. He may not be the best skater, but he’s still among the best play-driving wingers in the NHL. He can carry his own line, which not all wingers can do, although that is becoming more common in the modern NHL.

Robertson will turn 27 in July, so he still has plenty of great hockey ahead of him. He’s operating at such a high level that age-related decline will likely come more slowly and later in his career. That means he’s about to get paid, but what could the Stars have to dish out?

Best Comparables for Robertson

Thankfully, PuckPedia has a useful tool that offers comparables for what Robertson could sign for this summer. The most apt comparisons for him would be Matthew Tkachuk, Jordan Kyrou, and Elias Pettersson.

Tkachuk may be the best comparable of the ones mentioned. He signed an eight-year deal with the Florida Panthers at a cap hit of $9.5 million. Tkachuk signed that contract in 2022 during the flat cap era. At the time, that was worth 11.52 percent of the salary cap. If Robertson signs for 11.52 percent of the salary cap this summer, his cap hit would come in at $11.98 million.

Similarly, Kyrou signed his extension in 2022 during the flat cap era. His contract came in at 9.73 percent of the cap. If Robertson were to sign for 9.73 percent of the salary cap, his cap hit would come in at $10.1 million. That’s probably the lower end of what he will sign for, but there’s an important factor to consider.

Texas does not have a state income tax, so he will make more money than he can in some other NHL markets. Still, I’d be surprised if Robertson signed a contract that comes with a cap hit lower than $11 million. Mikko Rantanen signed for eight years and a cap hit of $12 million with the Stars after they acquired him from the Carolina Hurricanes. Those were different circumstances. Rantanen would have become a UFA had he not signed with the Stars, but I imagine Robertson’s camp will be pushing for a number close to Rantanen’s.

That’s why Pettersson might be a decent comp for Robertson, too. Pettersson may be a center, but his production was similar to Robertson’s at the time he signed his extension with the Vancouver Canucks in 2023. If Robertson were to sign for 13.18 percent of the cap as Pettersson did, his cap hit would come in at $13.707 million.

That is likely the upper limit of what it may take the Stars to sign Robertson, but don’t rule it out. The salary cap will continue to rise for the foreseeable future, so eclipsing Rantanen’s benchmark is not out of the question.

Stars Will Have to Free Up Some Cap Space

I’d be surprised if the Stars don’t re-sign Robertson, but cap space is tight heading into the draft and free agency. Per CapWages, the Stars project to have just over $13.14 million in cap space come July 1. Robertson’s next contract should take up a significant portion of that, and he’s not the only player the Stars need to sign.

Mavrik Bourque will also become an RFA on July 1. He won’t cost anywhere as much as Robertson, but his next contract could come with a cap hit of $3-4 million, even on a bridge deal. Jamie Benn is heading for unrestricted free agency on July 1. He won’t cost much to retain on a one-year deal, but the Stars will have to find cap space if they want to bring back all three players.

The most obvious cap casualty should be Ilya Lyubushkin, who has one year left on his contract at a cap hit of $3.25 million. He does not have any trade protections, so GM Jim Nill should have no trouble offloading the final year of his contract.

Still, the Stars will probably have to shed another contract, especially if Nill wants to make an addition or two to improve a roster that bowed out of the playoffs earlier than expected. It’ll be interesting to see how Nill navigates the offseason, but there will be some moving parts to fit in Robertson.

Regardless, Robertson is heading for a payday. The Stars might be able to get him a bit cheaper than other markets because of no state income tax, but his next cap hit will likely come in the $11-12 million range over eight years. He’s one of the best players in the NHL, and anything other than re-signing him would likely shut the Stars’ contention window. Expect the two sides to get a deal done because he’s worth the price.

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