Calgary Flames’ Lottery Draft Scenarios & Prospects to Target

The NHL’s draft lottery is quickly approaching.

Set to take place on May 5, the NHL’s ping-pong ball lottery could have massive implications for the Calgary Flames, who are currently selected to pick fourth in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft.

There are 16 teams with a chance to win the two lottery spots, which allow an organization to move up a maximum of 10 spots in the draft. This means the Flames could get the first- or second-overall pick in the lottery. Fourth, if both the winners are two of the top three teams. Then fifth or sixth overall if one or two teams with lower lottery odds than them win.

In preparation for all these scenarios, let’s look at some way-too-early draft targets the Flames should target, depending on where in the order they end up as a pick and how these players fit into the Flames’ future plans.

I’ll be mentioning names of prospects briefly throughout. If you want to read more in-depth coverage about each, check out our prospect profiles on each player linked!

1st & 2nd Overall: Gavin McKenna & Ivar Stenberg Sweepstakes

Winning the lottery and moving into one of these top two spots is obviously the ideal scenario and makes for an easy decision at the start of the draft, and allows the Flames to focus their energy on the several other selections they have to make.

Here at The Hockey Writers, prospect writer Andrew Forbes has Gavin McKenna topping his board, followed by Ivar Stenberg, while Jordan Orth lists Stenberg above McKenna in his April rankings on THW. Outside our publication, the consensus remains the same: Sportsnet’s Sam Cosentino, Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis, and NHL Central Scouting all have both players at the top of their lists.

Sitting with the fourth-best odds, the Flames have a 9.5% chance of landing the top pick, while the 32nd-place Vancouver Canucks have a 25.5% chance of landing the top pick.

After the first lottery winner is selected, things get complicated, at least if you’re math-illiterate like me. The most basic level, since that’s all I can understand, is if the Canucks, Chicago Blackhawks or New York Rangers, the three teams with better odds than the Flames, win the first overall pick, that will significantly improve the chances of winning the second overall selection, whereas if a team behind them wins the first lottery, it will marginally increase their odds in the second.

The complicated part is that these numbers change based on the first winner’s percentage of winning. After a lottery winner is determined, they’re removed from the pool, and their odds are redistributed among the 15 other teams still in the running for the second draw.

Regardless, if the Flames come out as a winner on Tuesday, they will only be thinking about two guys for either the first or second overall pick.

Ivar Stenberg – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile | Gavin McKenna – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

Fourth Overall: Caleb Malhotra

This is where the conversation gets interesting. Around this area, there are plenty of defensemen the Flames could target, most notably Keaton Verhoeff, whose stock has dropped slightly throughout the season after being in the first overall conversation with McKenna back in the fall, or Chase Reid, who shot up draft boards all season after an impressive season with the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds.

Both are right-handed defensemen with great potential, but with the Flames already having Zayne Parekh on their books, do they want another one of those? Maybe not, but it would be hard to argue against being able to play two of the three for 45-50 minutes combined per night if they turn out to be what analysts project.

There is also Carson Carels and the Latvian Olympian Alberts Smits, who are also projected to go somewhere in the middle of the top 10 picks. The difference is that they’re left-handed but project similarly to Verhoeff and Reid in terms of their ceiling. Could one of these be Parekh’s partner on the blue line for the future?

The Flames retaining this fourth overall selection they are projected to pick will mean the odds are worked out in the favourites’ favour. Meaning two of the top three teams win both selections. Not the worst thing that can happen from Calgary’s perspective, but it will ensure an anti-climactic night.

Since the NHL instituted the rule that no team can move more than 10 places in 2021, the team with the fourth-best odds has kept its selection in three of the five lotteries since then and hasn’t won the lottery yet under the new rules. The last time the team entered the lottery with the fourth-best odds of moving up was in 2020, when the Los Angeles Kings went from fourth to second.

While there are several excellent defensemen on the board, the Flames’ biggest priority needs to be adding offence, as they have been the lowest-scoring team in the NHL over the last two seasons. There are a couple of solid options outside the top two; the one I see as the best fit is Caleb Malhotra, son of former NHL’er Manny Malhotra.

Malhotra is leading the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) playoffs with 13 goals and 25 points in 13 games. His Brantford Bulldogs hold a 3-2 lead over the Barrie Colts in the Eastern Conference Final. He may not be in the same conversation as McKenna and Stenberg. However, he plays a complete 200-foot game; he has all the tools offensively to be a dual offensive threat, playmaking and scoring. He’d be a great fit in Calgary and would fill a huge need.

Caleb Malhotra – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

Fifth & Sixth Overall: A Plethora of Options

Now it’s time for the part of the conversation all Flames fans will be dreading. Especially after last year, when the 10th and 14th places came out as winners in the lottery. If one team behind the Flames’ logo is on one of the drawn balls, the Flames will drop to fifth; if both are behind the fourth spot, the Flames will draft sixth.

The only exemptions to this are the St. Louis Blues, who hold what would have been the Detroit Red Wings’ projected 15th overall pick, and the Washington Capitals, who sit 16th. They can move up to fifth and sixth at the highest.

Three through 10 will be hard to predict; there is a lot of high-end talent in this draft. So, I should say, if one of the three forwards mentioned earlier is still available at this spot, you take them. No questions asked.

More likely than not, at five or six, the Flames will be deciding between the cohort of Verhoeff, Reid, Carels and Smits mentioned earlier. There is also a world where I could see the Flames being so desperate for some offensive firepower up front that they take a small reach down the board for someone like Viggo Bjork, who has been flying up draft boards.

I expect the Flames to fall in the order, but at least the consequences of dropping aren’t anywhere near those of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who sit one spot behind with a top-five protected pick that they lose if one team moves past them.

Between all these prospects, we are splitting hairs. If you’re the Flames, picking four, five or six doesn’t change a whole lot.

Chase Reid – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile | Keaton Verhoeff – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile
Carson Carels – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile | Albert Smits – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile
Viggo Bjork – 2026 NHL Draft Prospect Profile

Big Picture Outlook

Whether it’s first, second, fourth, fifth or sixth, the Flames will be getting a player that projects to have a major impact at the NHL level with their first selection in the 2026 Draft. Outside of McKenna and Stenberg, the impact may not be seen right away.

However, even without a lottery win and neither of these two prized prospects, the top end of this draft is very talented. The Flames will be getting a player who will likely challenge for a roster spot in 2027-28, when their new arena, Scotia Place, opens.

Obviously, everyone is hoping for a lottery win, which would put them in the best position to speed-run this rebuild and get back into playoff contention quickly. But it shouldn’t be the expectation or the end-all be-all.

The Flames are sitting pretty regardless of how the results go at the lottery on May 5.