Avalanche Have Big Decision to Make on Zadorov

In the first installment of the Colorado Avalanche offseason, it was predicted that left-shot defenseman Ryan Graves would receive a contract extension after having a great first full year in the NHL. We now shift our focus to another key restricted free agent defenseman in Nikita Zadorov.

Due to injuries to Erik Johnson and Conor Timmins during Colorado’s 2020 playoff run, Zadorov was used on the second pair with Girard.

Why the Avalanche Should Move on From Zadorov

There is no issue regarding the capability and level of play Zadorov can provide, especially in a limited third-pairing role. However, the issue does arise when a depth defenseman is eating up more than $3 million in cap space.

With Girard’s new deal kicking in beginning at the commencement of the 2020-21 season and Makar and Landeskog up for new contracts in 2021-22 that will likely cost a pretty penny, the logistics of the cap make it difficult to see Zadorov returning to Colorado.

Zadorov has signed two contracts, not including his entry-level deal. While he has sacrificed length of term for a higher salary in the past, he may be looking for more term and stability this time around.

Future in the Organization

Due to the cap constraints as well as the organizational depth of the team, this could very well be the end of Zadorov’s tenure in Colorado. With Timmins having paid his dues in the minors after working his way back from lingering head injuries, he is poised to begin his NHL career.

Graves, who is also an RFA, is more likely to be brought back by the team than Zadorov, leaving Kevin Connauton as the only other defenseman who is not under team control past the 2019-20 season.

With an already jumbled blue line and in house replacements ready to emerge, it would be a better long-term decision to move on from Zadorov and use a cheaper and capable replacement option in Timmins to fill that third-pairing role.

Contract and New Team Prediction

With his expiring one-year contract paying him an average annual value of $3.2 million, Zadorov looks to be in line for a pay rise upon his next contract. He will be arbitration-eligible, which may cause the Avalanche to pay more than they would like to retain his services, which could ultimately prevent the team from keeping him around.

Table 1: Comparable Signed Defenseman Contracts

The blueliner’s next contract would likely begin at a minimum of $3 million, and he could command anywhere up to $5 million per year. If Colorado is indeed forced to move on from Zadorov, some teams that could have an interest in acquiring the defenseman without giving up too much in terms of compensation to sign him could include the Winnipeg Jets, New York Rangers, Washington Capitals, and Los Angeles Kings, as all of these clubs need help on the defensive end.