Why Haven’t the Lightning Signed Nikita Kucherov to an Extension?

The Tampa Bay Lightning have found themselves in an all-too-familiar spot. It’s not quite the same, but being a season out from a star player becoming a free agent is a bridge they’ve arrived at before.

An extension for Nikita Kucherov didn’t arrive before the new collective bargaining agreement, which would have meant they could still ink him for up to eight more seasons. Training camp and media days have arrived, and they appear close.

“Both parties, I know, would have preferred to have a deal today,” Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois said on Wednesday. “We haven’t been able to do that. We’re going to keep the lines of communication open, with the goal remaining to get Nikita signed to a contract that’s going to keep him in Tampa.”

Kucherov didn’t elaborate much on the matter. He just assured everyone that an extension wasn’t dictating his activities.

“My mind is trying to help the team this year. I control what I can control, and I’ll do my best what I can on the ice, and that’s what I’m focusing on right now,” he said on Wednesday.

Kucherov’s agent, Dan Milstein, per NHL insider Pierre LeBrun, declined to comment. However, this has been the typical response. The reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner makes $9.5 million this season ahead of free agency.

Should Lightning Fans Be Worried?

At this time, there really isn’t a reason to be. Cautious optimism is the most anxious anyone should get. There are a couple of reasons.

It appears there is more discourse already, at least publicly, compared to previous sagas regarding a lack of an extension. Steven Stamkos aired frustrations ahead of what proved to be his final season in a Lightning sweater. That’s a great start.

The salary cap situation is different now than it was in 2023-24. It was only just starting to go up after the freeze that followed the COVID-19 pandemic. Simultaneously, the Lightning were still at the peak of their crunch. Something should still be able to work out.

While Stamkos was gone after his frustrations, precedent shows that no extension before training camp doesn’t mean a player is gone. Last summer featured question marks surrounding Ryan McDonagh. He ultimately signed an extension mid-season.

If this drags later into the season, then maybe start to feel some concern. However, the regular season is still two weeks away. A lot can change before puck drop on opening night.

What Deal Could Kucherov Get and Can Lightning Swing It?

Knowing where contract values have been going recently, it could be a big one. To an extent, his age, 33, will play a role. He’s in for a payday, but it won’t be where the latest record deals are at. Still, it can help gauge what he could get.

New top contracts are pushing north of $15 million, and they’re topping out at $20.4 million with Cale Makar‘s recent deal. Some stars, such as Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, took contracts worth $12.5 million, but these were before the recent boom. These top deals are all going to players under 30.

According to Spotrac, only two players have received a contract with an average annual value of $10 million or more at 30 years old or older: Artemi Panarin (34, $11 million) and Alex Tuch (30, $10 million). Both of these contracts were recently signed.

This is why he’s in for a payday, but nothing will be earth-shattering. That being said, Kucherov’s pedigree should net him more than what Panarin and Tuch received. However, I think it won’t crack the $15 million mark.

Let’s call it a 50% increase from his current salary as a reasonable guess. That would put his new deal at $14.25 million per season. With the salary cap increasing to $113.5 million next season from $104 million, it’s a doable increase for the team.

Some smaller contracts would be off the books after this upcoming season as well. That could give them more flexibility to make the move to extend Kucherov and then worry about everything else after.

Time will tell how it unfolds. I’m not crossing into the territory yet of what happens if this continues to drag. If I said you can’t worry, then I’m not going to write in worrisome terms. We’ll address that in due time.