Gavin McKenna’s “Disappointing” College Season Might Be What the Maple Leafs Needed

For a player who had been described as a potentially generational talent, the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ rookie Gavin McKenna‘s first season at Penn State was strangely easy to criticize. McKenna finished the season with 51 points in 35 games. Those are excellent numbers for a 17-year-old playing NCAA hockey against older and stronger players. But because expectations had been so high, there was a feeling that he should have produced more.

That seems a little unfair. More importantly, it may have caused some people to miss what was actually encouraging about McKenna’s season. For the first time in a while, hockey wasn’t coming quite as easily to him. He had to adjust. And by the end of the season, he had.

McKenna Finally Had to Figure Things Out

McKenna had spent the previous couple of seasons making junior hockey look almost unfair. With Medicine Hat, he piled up points at a ridiculous rate. He scored 97 points in 61 games in his first full WHL season and then jumped to 129 points in just 56 games the following year.

When you’re doing that at 17, it’s easy to forget that the game will eventually get harder. That’s what happened when McKenna moved to Penn State. Instead of playing against younger junior players, he was now facing older, stronger, and more experienced opponents. The space he had enjoyed in junior hockey wasn’t always there. The passing lanes closed faster. Defenders were stronger. Mistakes were punished more quickly.

And suddenly McKenna wasn’t dominating every night. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it might have been exactly what he needed.

The Numbers Tell Only Half the McKenna Story

McKenna’s 51 points in 35 games look pretty good when viewed on their own. But the more interesting part of his season is what happened within those 35 games. In his first 18 games, McKenna recorded four goals and 15 assists for 19 points. Over his final 17 games, he scored 11 goals and added 21 assists for 32 points.

That’s a pretty dramatic change. His production jumped from 1.06 points per game during the first part of the season to 1.88 during the second half. That tells us something. McKenna didn’t simply arrive at Penn State and immediately dominate the way he had in junior hockey. He encountered a level of competition that forced him to change how he played.

Then he figured it out. For a young player, that may be more valuable than another season of putting up enormous numbers against competition he had already learned how to dominate.

The Important Part Was the Adjustment

There’s a temptation with elite prospects to judge every season by the number of points they score. That’s understandable. Points are easy to measure. Development isn’t.

The more important question is what happens when a young player encounters something he hasn’t seen before. Does he get frustrated? Does he disappear? Does he keep trying the same things even though they aren’t working? Or does he figure out another way?

McKenna appears to have done the last one. He didn’t suddenly become a different player at Penn State. The vision, passing ability, creativity and offensive instincts were still there. But he had to learn how to use those tools against players who could take away the easy options. That’s an important difference.

The NHL will do the same thing to him eventually, only more dramatically. There will be nights when McKenna can’t simply skate into open ice and make the play he wants. There will be bigger defenders, faster opponents, and coaches whose entire game plans are designed to take away what he does best.

Nobody should expect a future NHL star to avoid those problems. The question is whether he can solve them. Penn State gave us the first real opportunity to see that.

This Could Be More Encouraging Than Another Huge Season

Imagine the alternative. McKenna stays in junior hockey, scores another 130 points, and everyone walks away convinced that he is ready for anything. It would have looked great. But what would he have learned?

At Penn State, McKenna was forced to experience something much more useful. He discovered that being the best player on the ice doesn’t automatically mean the game will bend to him. He had to work for his opportunities. He had to adjust.

And then, as the season went along, he started producing at a much higher rate. For a player who is eventually expected to become an NHL star, that’s a pretty valuable lesson.

Now McKenna’s Real Test Begins

None of this means McKenna is guaranteed to become a superstar. It doesn’t mean a strong second half at Penn State erases every question about his development. And it certainly doesn’t mean the Maple Leafs should expect him to walk into the NHL and immediately produce like a veteran star.

That’s not how this works. What it does give us is a little more evidence about how McKenna responds when the game gets difficult. So far, the answer looks encouraging. He slowed down. He learned. Then he accelerated.

For Maple Leafs fans, that’s probably more important than another ridiculous junior stat line. McKenna has already shown that he can dominate when things are going his way. Now we’ve seen something else.

When McKenna faces a problem, he adapts and gets better. And when the game eventually gets even harder in the NHL, that’s going to be one of the most important skills he brings with him.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]