Blue Jackets Trends: Knies Rolls While Werenski, Mateychuk Log Heavy Minutes

We are debuting a new column for this season. Welcome to Blue Jackets Trends.

It has always been our goal to take you, the fan, beyond the box score as much as possible. Why is something working or not? What do the players think about different things? Our hope for this column is to do just that, take you beyond the box score to explain the why and what it could mean in the future.

The Blue Jackets have a strange schedule to start their season. Coming off their 4-1 loss to the Utah Mammoth at home on Saturday night, they have a full five days off before hosting the Pittsburgh Penguins. This will give them plenty of practice time to build chemistry while cleaning up several areas of their game.

Two games is of course a thin sample size to evaluate many things. So while these are early trends, they still provide us with useful information.

With that said, let’s begin with the newest Blue Jacket providing them an early spark.

Knies Beginning

The Kirill Marchenko for Matthew Knies trade will be compared for years. It’s a trade that is set to benefit both sides. For now though, the Blue Jackets are getting exactly what they hoped for.

Knies leads the team in scoring with his 2-2-4 in the first two games. He became the first Blue Jacket to ever debut with them with multiple goals. He showed the different ways he’ll be able to impact the game with his goal scoring. A one-timer on a power play and a deflection in front showed his versatility.

The trend to watch here was how were the Blue Jackets going to utilize Knies early. As expected, he’s playing in the spot Marchenko played on.

The takeaway? Knies is not a new Marchenko. He’s his own player but fits what the Blue Jackets are looking for.

The goals have come from a place of being a complementary piece on a solid top line. Knies’ goal on the power play came after some great work by Charlie Coyle to set him up. His second goal came from being in the right position to deflect Emil Andrae’s shot.

Knies’ assists came from setting Zach Werenski up before Adam Fantilli deflected that shot and then a great board pass to spring his linemate Kent Johnson for their only goal on Saturday.

The top line is not dominating possession yet but they are seeing positive results in the form of points. According to Nat Stat Trick, Knies’ line has played 22:57 together at 5-on-5. They’re controlling 46.7% of shot attempts but are controlling scoring chances (11-7) and goals (3-1.) This points to strong finishing and being opportunistic with their chances. However, there should be a little correction coming as their sample size gets larger.

Knies should not be evaluated by trying to directly replace Marchenko. He should be evaluated by how he fits with his line and the impact he’s having.

Early on, you can see the potential. For a two-game start, it’s as good as the Blue Jackets could have hoped for given the circumstances. Now the line will have their chance to start building and becoming a true threat every time they step on the ice. That part is still very much a work in progress.

Leaning on Top Defensive Pair

It was expected the Blue Jackets would lean on Werenski and Mateychuk in their first couple of games given the injuries to Ivan Provorov, Damon Severson and Dante Fabbro. We are not sure if this was what the team had in mind.

Entering Wednesday, Werenski led all skaters in average time on ice with 30:15. Mateychuk was third at 27:48. While both can play those kind of minutes when asked, it’s something the Blue Jackets don’t want to have to do on most nights if they can help it.

With Carson Soucy coming onto the team from a camp tryout and Andrae in fresh off a trade, this unit was always going to be a fluid situation until the injured were ready to return. The good news for the Blue Jackets is that assuming no setbacks, Severson should be ready for Friday.

Even just getting one player back will have a dramatic impact. Severson would be able to resume his role playing with Werenski. Meanwhile, Mateychuk can slide down to the second pair to balance that out.

The trend to watch here is not only how the defensemen would align, but who the odd-man out would be. It’s clear from the first two games that Jake Christiansen appears to be that guy for now. He played just 7:05 and 9:47 in the first two games. He also is the seventh defenseman with Severson ready to return.

If Christiansen is the seven now, that could mean he falls to nine when Provorov and Fabbro are ready to come back. It is usually not ideal to carry nine defensemen on a roster. Conversely, Christiansen is another player injury away from being in the lineup. It’s a tough spot knowing he’s potentially on the outside looking in but needing to stay ready.

In the near term, the Blue Jackets have to try to find their way on the blue line. Expect some bumps along the way as they try to figure things out.

Other Notable Trends

• Special teams won the game for the Blue Jackets against the Sabres. They lost the game for the Blue Jackets against the Mammoth. Plain and simple. The team cannot take nine minors every two games and expect to succeed. No matter how good a penalty kill is, if they give a team more chances, it will eventually burn them. The Mammoth made the Blue Jackets pay.
• If Severson is ready for Friday, it just requires a paper move to add him to the roster. His salary has counted against the cap so there is no corresponding move that needs to happen otherwise.
• But, if injuries continue to pile up, the Blue Jackets are in LTIR and have little space for now. That’s why they have been carrying only 21 players on the roster. What will be worth watching is how they decide to manage being a cap team especially if a roster need arises. Only Isac Lundestrom is on LTIR as of this writing.
• Once Provorov and Fabbro are ready, the team will have to decide how to keep the roster at 23 players. The Blue Jackets don’t have to decide now. But it’s something that they’ll have to encounter eventually.