Avalanche & MacKinnon Should Use Fellow Stars as Contract Inspiration

It’s early to discuss Nathan MacKinnon’s next contract (he’s not due for an extension until the 2023-24 season) but the ramifications of what should be an enormous deal dictates how the Colorado Avalanche move forward into the back-half of the 2020s. The superstar center will still only be 28 when his next contract takes effect, meaning he likely continues to produce at an all-NHL level for the majority of the upcoming commitment. With several years atop the scoring leaderboard under his belt, MacKinnon can use the salaries paid to other NHL superstars as tangible benchmarks. Using statistical analysis and historical comparables at the center position, I project the deal that locks up the seventh-highest scorer in franchise history through the rest of his prime. Let’s dig in.

MacKinnon’s Contract Promise

Before embarking on any attempts at a contract projection, some important context must be established around MacKinnon’s outlook. With the backdrop of rabid discourse surrounding the enormous contracts awarded to Toronto Maple Leafs’ young stars, the Halifax-born center was asked for his thoughts on his extremely team-friendly deal, and what he valued as it pertained to his next contract. MacKinnon indicated that he would take a pay cut to allow the Avalanche to continue building a Stanley Cup-caliber roster around him in the future. While admirable, his remarks were tinged by half-truths that, when examined critically, don’t hold up to scrutiny. This isn’t meant to needle MacKinnon, but much of the public discourse fails to adequately explain how Colorado developed into perennial contenders.

Before signing his current seven-year, $44-million deal in the summer of 2016, MacKinnon had only scored at a 57-point pace through his first three NHL seasons. After another slightly underwhelming season in which he tallied just 53 points in 82 games, the Avalanche superstar exploded in 2017-18 by scoring 97 points in 74 games, earning a Hart Trophy nomination and a place on the NHL’s Second All-Star Team in the process. Since that fateful season, he has delivered on his prestigious draft pedigree, ranking third in the NHL in total points scored during that time — production worthy of a contract similar to those enjoyed by the league’s other elite offensive talents.

It’s difficult to parse exactly what sort of discount MacKinnon considers to be “less,” but it’s doubtful that he leaves significant money on the table after being woefully underpaid for the majority of his career. His career arc is eerily similar to that of NBA superstar Stephen Curry — high draft picks experiencing stunted development before reaching another level while on a sweetheart deal — suggesting Colorado’s current situation is more a product of circumstance than the result of prophetic foresight. Not to dismiss the organization’s tendency to collect undervalued players that accentuate the roster’s strengths, but MacKinnon took an easy win with his comments. There’s nothing wrong with his approach, but time will tell if he keeps his word. Now, let’s look at how MacKinnon stacks up to the NHL’s best, prime-age centers.

Comparing MacKinnon to Positional Peers

Highly talented centers are the most valued assets in the NHL due to the tremendous responsibilities of offensive production and defensive reliability that are packaged with the job description. If a player embodies the gold standard of the position, they can expect to be paid handsomely. MacKinnon’s eye-popping production positions him as an All-NHL talent, and entitles him to the corresponding wage bracket. By comparing his statistical profile to that of his positional peers and age-cohort (consider this a pre-emptive apology for excluding Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the latter half of this exercise), a relatively accurate contract projection can be generated for the Avalanche superstar.

Historical Contract Comparisons

Firstly, strictly comparing contracts through the lens of their total cap hit ignores the financial realities of the environment in which it was signed. For example, when Crosby inked his 12-year, $104.4 million contract in the summer of 2012, the ceiling of the NHL’s salary cap was $60 million. His deal looks much more favourable in 2021, but it was the richest contract of the salary cap era by the percentage of the cap it occupied at the time it was signed. It’s also illegal, grandfathered in after the consummation of the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement, which limits contract length to eight years. Consequently, a deal’s cap hit percentage is a more useful tool for projecting future contracts.

Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews are two examples of young superstars bucking the trend of signing cheaper, team-friendly bridge deals, which depress their earnings through their prime years of production. Analytical research indicates that a forward’s age 24-26 seasons represents their offensive peak, but that’s when players have historically signed what is considered their career defining contract as an unrestricted free agent (UFA). Arguments can be made that it is unwise to hand gigantic deals to unproven commodities, but the era of greater player empowerment is here.

Of the five centers shown on that table, Malkin and Jonathan Toews best exemplify MacKinnon’s current age profile when signing a contract thhat buys several expensive years of a player’s UFA eligibility. It should be noted that at the time of signing his contact, Toews had already won a pair of Stanley Cups. However, the longtime Chicago Blackhawks’ captain had only once eclipsed a point-per-game pace before inking his extension. On the other hand, Malkin’s early career portfolio could quite possibly be the most impressive in NHL history. The Russian pivot scored 100 points three times, won a Hart Trophy, two Art Ross honours, and was awarded the Conn Smythe for his excellence in Pittsburgh’s 2009 Stanley Cup triumph, all before the age of 25. As you’ll see, MacKinnon is positioned between the two, surpassing Toews’ offensive production, but lacking the individual or team hardware boasted by both of his contemporaries.