Canadiens Wise to Have Passed on Marchenko Despite Trade to Maple Leafs

In more ways than one, it was fitting for the Montreal Canadiens to face the Toronto Maple Leafs to open the regular season earlier this week. It goes beyond the historic rivalry. The sentiment stems from the debut of Kirill Marchenko following his trade to the Leafs the previous day.

Canadiens Win but Leafs Get Last Laugh

While the Canadiens came away with a 3-2 victory, it definitely wasn’t a convincing win by any stretch, which might be disappointing for some Habs fans, considering the lofty expectations the team now faces after a successful 2025-26 season. Part of it has to do it with it having been the first game of the season. There was arguably rust that had set in.

Also, the Leafs are on paper a vastly improved team relative to last season, when they finished out of the playoffs. They had improved even before acquiring Marchenko. The Russian winger, who earned his first point, a secondary assist, literally seconds into his Leafs debut, makes them even more of a formidable opponent, as arguably the best player in the trade that saw Matthew Knies go the other way to the Columbus Blue Jackets.

What makes the match-up as fitting as it was is how the Canadiens had reportedly been in on Marchenko in previous weeks. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman recently confirmed as much, suggesting a deal between the Habs and Blue Jackets fell apart, because, as he put it, “There were some good players in there, but some futures. Columbus didn’t really want futures. And they just didn’t have anything close to Knies.”

Canadiens Avoid Lateral Move with Marchenko

To clarify, the Canadiens have plenty close to and superior to Knies. It just makes sense, based on where they are in their rebuild, not to give up core fixtures in what would be seen as a lateral move. You can debate whether or not Marchenko is so far and away better than Knies that it amounts to more of a significant upgrade for the Leafs than a lateral move, but it’s probably no coincidence the Habs had also been linked to Knies. A deal with the Leafs that included Knies reportedly just missed last season’s trade deadline (by a minute).

Granted, nothing has been officially confirmed (and it’s unlikely anything would be even if it were true), but a lot of the reasons why it wouldn’t have made sense for the Canadiens to acquire Knies also apply to Marchenko, too. Primary among them? The cost would have obviously been exorbitant, justifiably so as Knies is extremely versatile, going on just 24, coming off a career-high 66-point season and on a fairly affordable contract ($7.75 million cap hit).

While Knies would elevate any lineup in theory (unless maybe a lineup losing Marchenko), he is not a centre. The Canadiens more than anything need a No. 2 centre. So, devoting valuable assets to a luxury like a top-six winger, assets that could otherwise go toward acquiring the hypothetical centre in question would represent questionable asset management. In that light, you can probably justify the recent signing of Chris Kreider to conceivably fill the hole general manager Kent Hughes seems to see in his top six, as all he gave up was cap space and a small amount of it at that ($2.15 million over a single season).

Marchenko an Ideal Acquisition but at an Unideal Cost

Kreider, at 35, may not be the ideal player to fill that role (for myriad reasons), and Knies/Marchenko may more likely have been. However, based on the available information, Hughes was right to have apparently lowered the temperature in negotiations with the Jackets. For the Canadiens’ purposes, the price simply would not have been worth it.

Is it worth it for the Leafs? While Marchenko certainly appeared to be one their better players in Game 1, the trade’s verdict will depend on how the rest of the season goes and how Knies fares with the Jackets. More info (that isn’t currently available) is needed to form an opinion, just like Hughes couldn’t have predicted Marchenko would go to a division rival.

It changes things, but only to a degree.

Canadiens fans should remember last season they and the Buffalo Sabres were each reported as being in on St. Louis Blues forward Robert Thomas. Considering Thomas’ perceived value as an in-his-prime centre who theoretically would have fit their need and fit in with their timeline to contend, it was more of an acquire-at-all-costs situation (that never came to fruition, with Thomas currently staying with the Blues).

That the Sabres are also one of the youngest teams in the NHL and were competing with the Canadiens down the stretch to win the Atlantic (ultimately claiming the regular-season division title) was another factor. Thomas, through that lens, in theory represented the balance of power in the division for years to come. Marchenko going to the Leafs isn’t exactly the same.

Sure, if you’re a Canadiens fan, it probably stings that he went to the Leafs instead, but it could be worse. The Leafs aren’t seen as strong as either the Sabres (or Habs). Maybe Marchenko pushes them into contention, but, seeing as the Jackets finished above the Leafs last season, but still outside the playoffs, with Marchenko, he alone fails to push them over the top.

The difference between the 2026-27 Leafs and the team from last season is obviously more than just Marchenko, but, based on their inability to dominate in their own right, in the first game of the season, it’s nothing to read too much into at the moment, if you’re the Canadiens. It’s definitely nothing over which to obsess. The Habs have their own things to address, like resolving their situation at centre. Worrying about Marchenko, who isn’t one, accomplishes nothing, especially now that he’s off the table. And worrying about the Leafs, beyond their four total games against each other this season, is a similar fool’s errand. Sorry… now three games.

It’s hardly worth even mentioning at this point.