Maple Leafs News and Rumours: Chayka, Raddysh, Andrae, Bobrovsky & Analytics Endorsement

The Toronto Maple Leafs had a busy summer. New general manager John Chayka didn’t waste much time putting his fingerprints on the roster, bringing in a collection of new players while moving out several familiar faces. Whether all of those moves work out remains to be seen, of course, but at least one analytical model thinks Toronto had the best offseason in the NHL.

That is a pretty strong endorsement for a team that has given its fans plenty of reasons to debate whether it actually improved over the summer. This time around, the numbers are at least pointing in the right direction. And while we should resist the temptation to start planning the Stanley Cup parade in September, there is legitimate reason for optimism.

Topic One: Have the Maple Leafs Improved More Than Other Teams?

According to Off The Rush, a data-focused NHL account, the Maple Leafs added more projected value to their roster this offseason than any other team in the league. Their calculation uses Projected Standing Points Above Replacement, or pSPAR. In plain English, it estimates how much additional value players could provide compared with a replacement-level NHL player.

Toronto reportedly added 9.47 pSPAR, comfortably ahead of the New Jersey Devils at 8.54 and the Washington Capitals at 7.56. The New York Rangers were fourth at 5.04. That is a pretty substantial gap, particularly when you remember that there are 32 teams trying to convince themselves they got better over the summer.

The comparison becomes even more promising inside the Atlantic Division. The Boston Bruins were the next-closest team at only 2.79 pSPAR, while the Florida Panthers’ improvement was estimated at less than one point. Obviously, no statistical model can account for everything that happens during an NHL season, but it does offer intriguing evidence that Toronto’s offseason wasn’t merely busy—it may have been productive.

Topic Two: Toronto Added a Lot of Depth

The reason the numbers favour Toronto is fairly simple: the Maple Leafs added many useful hockey players. The sign-and-trade involving Darren Raddysh was one of the bigger moves, while the additions of Sergei Bobrovsky, Nick Paul, Jack Roslovic, Colton Sissons, Teddy Blueger and Brandon Duhaime give the roster considerably more depth.

Some of those players will obviously have bigger roles than others. But that is the point. Toronto doesn’t need every newcomer to become a star. If several of these players simply provide dependable NHL minutes, the overall roster should have a higher floor than it did a year ago.

Even Emil Andrae, acquired from the Philadelphia Flyers in the Joseph Woll trade, gives Toronto another defenseman who can move the puck. That might sound small, but anyone who watched the team struggle to consistently transition the puck up the ice last season knows it isn’t.

Of course, there were plenty of departures as well, including Matias Maccelli, Nicholas Robertson, Calle Jarnkrok, Brandon Carlo, Simon Benoit and Woll. The question is whether Toronto lost significant talent.

What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?

The encouraging part is that Toronto appears to have addressed several areas that needed attention. There is more depth, more competition for jobs and, at least on paper, more options when injuries inevitably arrive. That should matter over an 84-game season.

But September analytics don’t win playoff games, and the Maple Leafs have proven many times that looking good on paper and actually delivering when the pressure arrives are two very different things. Still, if you’re looking for reasons to feel a little better about the team heading into the season, this is certainly one of them.

For now, Maple Leafs fans can enjoy the rare experience of having the numbers tell them that their team really did have an excellent offseason. Whether that turns into wins, a playoff run, and something considerably more meaningful is the part we still have to wait to find out.