Maple Leafs Fans Shouldn’t Expect Gavin McKenna to Be Alex Ovechkin

There is nothing wrong with being excited about Gavin McKenna. The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t had a first-overall pick in a very long time, and McKenna arrives in Toronto with enormous expectations after being selected first overall in the 2026 NHL Draft. He is talented and confident, coming off an impressive freshman season with Penn State. There are plenty of reasons for Maple Leafs fans to be excited.

But there is a difference between being excited about what McKenna might eventually become and expecting him to immediately become one of the NHL’s best players. Some of the predictions being made about his rookie season have crossed that line. If McKenna scores 65 points this season, that shouldn’t be considered disappointing. It should be considered a spectacular rookie season.

65 Points Would Be a Terrific Rookie Season

Auston Matthews scored 69 points in his rookie season. Patrick Kane had 72. Sidney Crosby scored 102, and Alex Ovechkin had 106. Those are four forwards selected first overall since 2000 who reached at least 65 points in their rookie seasons.

Look at some of the players who didn’t do it. Connor McDavid didn’t reach 65 points in his rookie season. Connor Bedard didn’t. Macklin Celebrini didn’t. Steven Stamkos didn’t. John Tavares didn’t. Ilya Kovalchuk and Nathan MacKinnon didn’t. These are not ordinary hockey players. They are players who were selected first overall because teams believed they could become franchise cornerstones.

That is why a prediction of 45 or 50 points for McKenna shouldn’t sound like a failure. One reader suggested 40-45 points, while another wondered whether something around 45 might be a more realistic expectation. Those numbers aren’t an indictment of McKenna. They’re a reminder that an 18-year-old moving from college hockey to the NHL is making an enormous adjustment. McKenna’s own college production was impressive, but the jump from NCAA hockey to the NHL is enormous.

The 100-Point Predictions Are Another Matter

The 65-point conversation is reasonable. The 100-point conversation is where things get a little illogical, given the evidence of previous first-round picks.

Since 2000, only two forwards selected first overall have scored 100 points in their rookie seasons: Ovechkin and Crosby. Ovechkin had 106 points in 2005-06, while Crosby had 102. Those weren’t simply excellent rookies. They were players who went on to define an era of the sport.

That doesn’t mean McKenna can’t become that kind of player. Nobody knows yet. That’s the exciting part. But projecting 100 points in his first NHL season isn’t simply projecting that he will be a great player. It is putting him in an extraordinarily small historical category before he has played a single NHL game. Even a 100-point projection based on his college scoring rate needs to be treated with caution, because translating NCAA production directly into an NHL season doesn’t account for the enormous differences in competition, usage, and schedule.

The better question for the Maple Leafs isn’t whether McKenna can score 100 points immediately. It’s whether he can have a successful first season, learn what the NHL demands, and establish himself as a player Toronto can build around for the next decade. If he scores 45 points, that could be a very good beginning. If he scores 55, it could be an excellent rookie season. If he gets to 65, Maple Leafs fans should be thrilled.

The temptation with a player this highly regarded is to make every prediction a referendum on his talent. It doesn’t have to be. McKenna doesn’t need to be Ovechkin or Crosby at 18 to eventually become an elite NHL player.

McKenna’s Bigger Picture

The most important thing for Toronto may be giving McKenna room to develop without turning every quiet stretch into a crisis. He is going to have good nights and bad nights. He is going to make mistakes. There will be games when he looks like an 18-year-old rookie and others when he looks like the player Toronto believes he can become.

That’s part of the process. The Maple Leafs drafted McKenna first overall because they believe in what he can become, not because they expect him to reproduce Ovechkin’s rookie season immediately. NHL.com’s preseason fantasy outlook already suggested McKenna could exceed 60 points, which shows that an optimistic projection is certainly reasonable.

The best outcome for Toronto isn’t necessarily a 100-point McKenna. It’s a McKenna who finishes the season healthier, stronger, smarter and more prepared for his second NHL season than he was on opening night. If the points come with that development, even better.

Maple Leafs fans have waited a long time for a first-overall pick. It is understandable that they want to see something special immediately. But there is a difference between expecting something special eventually and demanding something historic right away.

McKenna doesn’t need to score 100 points to make his rookie season a success. He doesn’t even need 65. If he finishes somewhere around 45-55 points while showing the flashes that made Toronto select him first overall, that should be viewed as the beginning of something exciting, not evidence that the hype was misplaced.