Flyers’ Strong Start Unlikely to Last

We’re already half a dozen games into the Philadelphia Flyers’ 2023-24 campaign, and a lot has already happened. We’ve seen an injury, a benching, and one of the more improbable comebacks possible in hockey, among other things. The Flyers sit at 3-2-1, which is respectable given they’ve only had two home games and have faced some pretty stiff competition. Here’s what to make of their first two weeks of action, and whether their surprisingly strong start is a sign of what’s to come or a blip on the radar.

Reasons to Believe

5-on-5 Play

Other than maybe goaltending, there’s nothing more important in hockey than 5-on-5 play. Over the last few seasons, the Flyers have unsurprisingly been one of the league’s weaker teams in this area. Last season, the Flyers were outscored by 22 goals at 5-on-5 and finished 23rd in the league with a 47.76 percent expected goals (xG) share. Unsurprisingly, none of the teams that finished below them made the playoffs.

So far, the Flyers are playing legitimately well during the majority of games. Philadelphia’s 54.11 percent xG share ranks sixth in the league this season. The team is also playing a balanced style, coming in eighth in both xG for and against. They’ve tightened up their defensive zone play, forechecked effectively and also simply have a more skilled team than a season ago. All of that adds up to an impressive opening six games.

The Penalty Power Kill

When the Flyers have been shorthanded, they haven’t been as good as they’ve been at 5-on-5. They’ve been better, at least relative to what you’d expect from a team down a man. Assistant coach Brad Shaw brought with him the “power kill” mentality he and John Tortorella honed with the Columbus Blue Jackets (from ‘Inside the Flyers’ new penalty kill: Brad Shaw is “letting them hunt”‘, The Athletic, Jan. 13, 2023). Being more aggressive on the penalty kill is becoming more commonplace, but few swarm like the Flyers while shorthanded. It showed signs of promise at times last year, as the Flyers were tied for fourth with 11 shorthanded goals. Their overall efficiency was just 26th, though, leaving plenty of room for improvement.

The Flyers frankly couldn’t be playing better while shorthanded. Philadelphia is first in both xG for and against while on the penalty kill. Their four shorthanded goals are the most in the league, three of which came in a massive comeback effort to secure a point on Saturday against the Dallas Stars. And their 85 percent success rate is tied for 10th, which means this offensive boon isn’t coming at the expense of defensive breakdowns.

Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson Look Back

The most simple way to project an improvement for the Flyers this season was to factor in the impact coming from the returns of Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson. It wasn’t fair to expect two players in their 30s coming off significant injuries to just return at peak powers. Yet, so far, both players look like their old selves.

The trigger-happy Atkinson is second on the team with four goals. Couturier is handling matchups against the league’s star forwards well and has four points himself, including a filthy penalty shot tally against the Vancouver Canucks. Both are huge reasons for Philadelphia’s success in the aforementioned areas. If the Flyers are going to surprise people for the better, they’ll need to keep leading the team on and off the ice.

Reasons to Doubt

We’ve Seen This Before

The Flyers were 7-3-2 to start last season. They were 8-4-2 out of the gates in 2021-22. In 2020-21, they started the campaign 8-3-2. All good records that all went bad before long. The Flyers didn’t finish better than 18th in the NHL in any of those seasons. They’ve been especially pitiful the last two seasons, to the point where the team finally accepted a much-needed rebuild.

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Six good games are not going to change that, just like the dozen or so good games to begin the last few seasons ultimately didn’t save those previous Flyers teams. Yes, this Flyers team is playing a bit better under the hood than in years past. It still isn’t nearly enough to make anyone think they’ll be significantly better than expected.

The Power Play

Philadelphia’s lack of skill is painfully evident whenever opposing teams take a penalty. There’s being bad on the power play, and then there’s being the only team in the league without a 5-on-4 goal this season. The Flyers’ lone power-play goal of the season so far came on a 5-on-3 against the Ottawa Senators, and even that was on a gritty rebound rather than a skilled passing play.