2026-27 Norris Trophy is Sabres’ Rasmus Dahlin’s to Lose

Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin has carried major expectations ever since he was selected first overall in the 2018 NHL Draft. Now entering his ninth NHL season, he has fully grown into one of the league’s premier defensemen.

After leading the Sabres to an Atlantic Division title and a 50‑plus win season, while setting career highs in goals (19) and points (74), Dahlin earned his first nomination as a Norris Trophy finalist. He didn’t take home the award, with Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski winning it, but the trajectory is clear: Dahlin is still getting better, and he’s positioning himself to make an even stronger push for the Norris Trophy this season.

Two-Way Game Is Getting Even Better

Dahlin’s two‑way game has taken a major step forward over the last two seasons, and there’s every reason to believe it will continue trending upward. According to Evolving Hockey, he ranked in the 93rd percentile in offense and the 91st percentile in defense last season, showing just how complete his game has become.

Offensively, he controls the pace of play every time he touches the puck. His ability to move the puck up ice with fluidity, dictate tempo, and let plays develop naturally is one of the strongest parts of his game. After returning from his leave of absence last season, we saw the best version of him. From Nov. 15 through the end of the regular season, he recorded the fourth‑most goals (18) among defensemen, the fifth‑most assists (47), and the fourth‑most points (65). He was driving Buffalo’s offense at an elite level.

He elevated his play even further in the postseason. Dahlin put up 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) in 13 games while helping the Sabres win their first playoff series in 20 years and come one goal shy of reaching the Eastern Conference Final. He was consistently the best player on the ice, and according to MoneyPuck, he posted a 64 percent Corsi and Fenwick: dominant numbers in high‑pressure minutes.

Defensively, his game remains one of the most underrated aspects of his skill set. His defensive IQ continues to grow, and he’s become excellent at boxing out opponents in high‑danger areas, using his body effectively, and staying in perfect position to make the right play. MoneyPuck also tracked his on‑ice expected goals against per 60 minutes at 2.51 during the playoffs, which ranked 11th among defensemen who logged 200‑plus minutes. That number was tied with the Minnesota Wild’s Quinn Hughes, further highlighting Dahlin’s impact in his own zone.

What Dahlin Must Do In Order to Win the Norris Trophy

For Dahlin to win the Norris Trophy this season, a few key things need to happen. First, he likely needs to reach the 90‑point mark. Three of the last four Norris winners have hit 90‑plus points, and Dahlin has the offensive ceiling to join that group. With Bowen Byram and Alex Tuch departing this offseason, there’s even more opportunity for him to drive Buffalo’s offense and take on an expanded role.

He’ll also need to maintain, or even elevate, his defensive game. His two‑way play took a major leap last season, and he consistently shut down top competition. If he pairs elite defensive impact with a 90‑point season, he becomes extremely difficult for voters to overlook.

The final piece is team success. While Werenski won the Norris last season despite missing the playoffs and finishing with 81 points, the two winners before him played on teams that finished sixth and eighth in the league. Dahlin doesn’t need the Sabres to be a Presidents’ Trophy contender, but Buffalo likely needs to finish top three in the Atlantic Division to strengthen his case, unless he puts up a season so dominant that team results become secondary.

It won’t be easy with Cale Makar, Hughes, Werenski, and Lane Hutson all in the mix every year, but this feels like the season where Dahlin finally breaks through and adds the Norris Trophy to his case.